Neither Israel nor Hezbollah are spoiling for a full-scale war. This conclusion is well established after five months of constant exchanges of fire between the Lebanese border and the Galilee district of Northern Israel.
Both parties would rather return to the relative quiet although tense situation which preceded the October 7 onslaught by Hamas. The difference between the combatants is that Israel would not agree to anything less than a significant withdrawal of Hezbollah forces and assets from the vicinity of the border, and made it clear that it would work to achieve this goal by military means if diplomacy fails, as it has up until now.
So how inevitable is an escalation into a ground war, accompanied by strikes deep into Lebanon – including Beirut – and missile attacks on targets as far south as Tel Aviv?
