Except for its failed April 14 missile and drone attack, Iran has been careful to conduct its war against Israel only through proxies. In the West, Hamas. In the North, Hezbollah. In the East, Iraqi Shiite militias. In the South, Yemen’s Houthis. This has been a low-risk strategy for Tehran, but it does have one serious flaw – casualties and escalation are not under any party’s control, and Israel may decide to regain the initiative and hit Iran directly and much more powerfully than it did in mid-April.

