While it remains unclear whether the American-Iranian war has ended, at least for the time being, this point of uncertainty seems to be mostly legal and political. There continue to be sporadic incidents around the Strait of Hormuz with the potential of a much larger fire erupting at any given moment, if Trump decides that the Iranian interlocutors are either stalling or have no authority to commit Tehran to an agreement. While Trump’s focus this week is on China, which just happens to be Iran’s strategic backer and oil client, he will soon have to decide whether enough is enough and if to resume the military campaign. What are the factors and timeline involved in this decision?

