With the two-week ceasefire in the Iran War at midpoint, at least according to schedule, tensions are brewing over the Hormuz Strait, with Tehran and Washington both jockeying for dominance and a view to concluding the conflict on optimal terms. The Iranians claim that the Saturday round in Pakistan was almost successful – mere inches from reaching an understanding – while the Trump Administration insists that an agreement will only follow once the American conditions have been accepted. So between talks and tankers, terms and tensions, what are the possible scenarios for the next stage?

