US envoy Morgan Ortagus has been visiting both Israel and Lebanon over the last several days, in an effort to avert the collapse of the ceasefire brought about by Hezbollah’s resounding defeat by the IDF last year. Hezbollah is seemingly deterred by Israel’s military might, however, it refuses to obey Beirut’s demand that the Iranian Shiite proxy disarm and transform into a purely political movement. And should it perceive itself to be cornered, Hezbollah may try to disrupt the process by triggering an escalation, following on from one of the many Israeli strikes on people and equipment being used to rehabilitate its infrastructure in Southern Lebanon.

